TOKYO, June 26 2019 : Asian stocks slipped today and the dollar pulled back from three-month lows after Federal Reserve officials tempered expectations in the markets for aggressive monetary easing.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell yesterday said the central bank is “insulated from short-term political pressures,” pushing back against U.S. President Donald Trump’s demand for a significant rate cut.
Powell, however, said Fed policymakers are wrestling with whether uncertainties around U.S. tariffs, Washington’s conflict with trading partners and tame inflation require a rate cut.
Separately, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told Bloomberg Television he does not think the U.S. economy is dire enough to warrant a 50-basis-point cut in July, even though he pushed to lower rates last week.
Equity markets have rallied this month, with Wall Street shares advancing to record highs, after the Fed was seen to have opened the door to possible rate cuts as early as next month at is policy-setting meeting last week.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch program, federal funds futures implied that traders saw a 27% chance of the Fed lowering rates by half a percentage point in July, compared to 42% on Monday.
Trump said on Twitter on Monday that the Fed “doesn’t know what it is doing,” adding that it “raised rates far too fast” and “blew it” given low inflation and slowing global growth.
Tracking overnight losses on Wall Street, Australian stocks dipped 0.15%, South Korea’s KOSPI shed 0.1% and Japan’s Nikkei retreated 0.6%.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was a shade lower.
“While Powell’s comments do not alter expectations that the Fed will ease sooner or later, they do leave a slightly negative impact on equities,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management.
The United States hopes to re-launch trade talks with Beijing after Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping meet in Japan during the G20 summit on Saturday but Washington will not accept any conditions on tariffs, a senior administration official said yesterday.
The two sides could agree not to impose new tariffs as a goodwill gesture to get negotiations going, the official said, but it was unclear if that would happen.
The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies stood at 96.177, holding to modest gains made the previous day.
The index had bounced back from 95.843 yesterday, its lowest level since March 21, following comments from the top Fed officials.
The dollar was steady at 107.160 yen after a rebound from a near six-month low of 106.780.
The greenback had sunk to the six-month trough as the yen, a perceived safe haven, had drawn bids in the face brewing U.S.-Iran tensions.
The euro was little changed at $1.1368 after being nudged off a three-month peak of $1.1412.
U.S. crude oil futures edged up to a four-week high of $58.87 per barrel after data showed a decline in U.S. crude stocks.
Graphic: Asian stock markets (tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4) – Reuters